Training camp is underway. Before the first regular season snap, here's what two seasons of CFL play-by-play data actually says about where each team stands — and what has to change.
The Metric That Matters Most
Yards per game doesn't tell you much. Turnovers are noisy. The number that consistently separates winning teams from losing teams in the three-down game is offensive success rate — the percentage of plays that gain enough ground to keep a drive alive (50% of yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, a conversion on 3rd).
In 2025, the spread between the best and worst teams in the CFL on this metric was 5 percentage points. That sounds small. It isn't. It's the difference between a team that sustains drives and a team that punts.
The Teams
BC Lions — Offence Carried Them. Defence Has to Show Up.
The Lions led the CFL in offensive success rate in both 2024 and 2025. In 2025, they ran the ball on 51% of snaps — highest in the league — and still posted the best pass yards per attempt at 12.95. Vernon Adams Jr. was the only QB in the CFL with a positive EPA per play.
The defence? Dead last in success rate allowed both seasons. 51% of opponent plays were successful in 2025. That is not a gap you paper over with one offseason.
Adams is now in Calgary. Tommy Rittenhouse takes over at QB. The offence was already operating above its QB — but a new starter in year one adds real uncertainty to the one unit that was elite.
2026 question: Can the defence take a meaningful step, and can Rittenhouse maintain what Adams built?
Winnipeg Blue Bombers — The Dynasty That Stalled
WPG had the best defence in 2024, then watched their 3rd-down offence fall from 29% to 14% in 2025 — a collapse that's hard to explain with roster turnover alone. They still won the West and made the Grey Cup, but they lost 41–24 to Toronto.
Zach Collaros is still the starter. The offensive line group is intact. But 14% on 3rd down is a real number, not noise — and it held all season.
2026 question: Was the 3rd-down regression situational or structural?
Toronto Argonauts — Grey Cup Champions, Legitimate Contenders
Toronto won the 111th Grey Cup 41–24 over Winnipeg. Nick Arbuckle had a positive EPA per play in 2025 — one of only a handful of QBs in the league who can say that. The defence held Saskatchewan and Montreal in back-to-back playoff games before dismantling the Bombers.
The Argonauts don't have a clear weakness heading into 2026. That's the most dangerous kind of team.
Edmonton Elks — The Contradiction
EDM had the best defensive success rate in the CFL in 2025 (44% allowed), but the worst drive scoring rate on offence (29%). Best defence, worst offence — a team that can stop you and can't score. They finished with one of the worst records in the league.
Cody Fajardo is back. The offensive weapons are thin. Camp is about whether the addition of Austin Mack and a full offseason of system development can move that 29% needle.
2026 question: Can the offence reach league average? Anything above 36% drive scoring rate and EDM is a playoff team.
Saskatchewan Roughriders — Broken 3rd Downs
The Roughriders converted 12% of their third downs in 2025. That is the worst in the CFL and one of the worst single-season marks in recent memory. Their offence stalled relentlessly. Trevor Harris played well within the system but couldn't manufacture first downs when they weren't schemed.
They won the Western Semi-Final anyway, then lost the Western Final to Winnipeg. The talent is there. The execution on money downs wasn't.
2026 question: Is 12% an aberration, or is there a scheme problem that camp hasn't addressed?
Hamilton Tiger-Cats — The League's Most Complete Offence
HAM led the CFL in drive scoring rate in 2025 at 43%. Bo Mitchell threw 36 touchdowns. Their offence wasn't just good — it was consistent, showing up in late-game situations and in key drives throughout the season.
The defence was average. That's the ceiling risk. A great offence with average defence wins you 10 games and a first-round exit.
The East Pack — Montreal, Ottawa, Calgary
MTL: Lost the Eastern Final 28–30 to Toronto. Fajardo is gone to Edmonton. The receiving corps remains one of the best in the East, but a QB transition in-season is always messy.
OTT: Lost the Eastern Semi-Final 38–58. The defence has significant holes. Hard to see a path to the Eastern Final without major camp attrition working in their favour.
CGY: Picked up Vernon Adams Jr. in the offseason. If Adams can stay healthy and bring even half of what he delivered in BC, Calgary becomes a legitimate sleeper in the West.
What to Watch in Camp
Rittenhouse in BC. He's coming out of Illinois State to take over the league's best offensive system. The reps he gets in camp and preseason will tell you whether BC is a contender or a .500 team in 2026.
Edmonton's offence. Best defence in the league. If Fajardo and Mack can build something in camp that looks like a functional West Coast system, EDM is very dangerous.
Saskatchewan's 3rd downs. Literally anything above 20% would be a major improvement. Watch their red zone work specifically — that's where the 2025 breakdown was most pronounced.
The Bottom Line
The 2026 CFL season will be decided by three things: whether BC can stay elite without Adams, whether Winnipeg's offence gets back to 2024 levels, and whether Toronto can defend a championship with a target on their back.
The data gives Toronto the edge — and no reason to doubt them until someone proves otherwise on the field.
Want to build your 2026 war room? Draft your team at cfldraftroom.com.
Grey CFL Analytics tracks play-by-play data across the full CFL regular season and playoffs. All metrics referenced — success rate, EPA, drive efficiency — are calculated from raw play data using CFL-adapted models.